(M3) Bear Threat Remains Present Despite Bounce

• RES 4: 107.33 High Mar 20
• RES 3: 106.25 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 2: 105.62 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 105.04 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• PRICE: 104.27 @ Close Apr 4
• SUP 1: 103.82/102.74 20-day EMA / Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 3: 102.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 101.12 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally

Gilt futures traded higher Monday and price remains above last week’s low of 102.74 (Mar 31). However, a short-term bearish threat is present - last week’s move down resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.82. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a continuation lower towards 102.31 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 105.04, a Fibonacci retracement.