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(M3) Trend Needle Points South

GILT TECHS
  • RES 4: 101.98 High May 11
  • RES 3: 100.74 20-day EMA
  • RES 2: 99.73/100.11 Low Apr 19 / High May 18
  • RES 1: 99.21 High May 19
  • PRICE: 98.36 @ Close May 19
  • SUP 1: 97.60 Low May 19
  • SUP 2: 97.46 61.8% retracement of the Oct 12 - Nov 24 2022 rally
  • SUP 3: 97.00 2.00 projection of the May 3 - 10 - 11 price swing
  • SUP 4: 96.41 2.236 projection of the May 3 - 10 - 11 price swing

Gilt futures continued to weaken Friday and last week’s break lower marked an acceleration of the bear cycle. The contract has cleared support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low, and 99.20, the Feb 28 low and a key support level. Note that price has also traded through the late Dec 2022 lows. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for weakness towards 97.00, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 99.73.

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