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Macro Developments Since July FOMC: GDP Growth Resilient, Possibly Very

FED
  • Landing just the day after the July decision, real GDP growth came in stronger than expected in Q2 at 2.4% only to then be revised back to 2.1% in the second release a month later.
  • As things stand currently, it leaves Q2 close to the 2.0% seen in Q1 and shows little sign of below trend growth that would help eat into excess demand as the Bank of Canada has started to see north of the border.
  • What’s more, those growth rates were hit by drags from changes in inventories, whilst final sales to domestic purchases were stronger at 2.3% annualized after 3.5% in Q1.
  • Turning to latest indicators, growth nowcasts vary greatly by provider but the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, having accurately predicted the Q2 outturn, is pointing to an extremely strong 4.9% annualized GDP growth in Q3, despite having recently been revised down from nearly 6% a couple weeks ago.
  • This is admittedly partly based on a strong bounce in inventories after the prior drag, but consumer spending is still seen as a strong driver by adding 2.4pps.

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