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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
- The two CPI reports were first slightly softer than expected for July before then coming in stronger than expected for August.
- It has seen a three-month run rate ease to 2.4% annualized from 5.0% as recently as May. However, numerous idiosyncratic drivers such as large swings in airfares have made it more important to focus on core PCE changes, especially when it comes to month-to-month changes.
- The core PCE report for August doesn’t land until after the Sept 19-20 FOMC meeting, due Sep 29, but initial analyst estimates seen after the latest CPI and PPI reports are sitting in the region of 0.14% M/M for August.
- If accurate it would mark continued disinflationary progress from 0.22% M/M in July and 0.21% M/M in June, and the lowest since July 2022’s surprisingly soft 0.08% M/M before rebounding with a string of very strong readings.
- This time we appear to be on track for a third relatively subdued monthly print, translating to an average 2.3% annualized for core PCE. That’s similar to the CPI estimate above rather than core PCE maintaining a typical gap lower, but nevertheless marks some strong progress from the 4.9% as of Q1 and 3.3% as of Q2.
- It would leave the year-ago rate at 3.8% Y/Y, already below the upward revised 3.9% the median FOMC participant pencilled in for the average through 4Q23 back in the June SEP and with further progress likely.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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