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Macro Developments Since Jun FOMC: Prices - inflation expectations climb [2/2]

US
  • Despite softer than expected realized inflation, one area that has seen some renewed upward pressure however is surveyed inflation expectations, most notably the University of Michigan consumer survey.
  • Whilst only a preliminary July reading, consumer confidence jumped and there was far more resilience in inflation expectations components than expected.
  • The 1Y ahead measure ticked up to 3.4% (cons 3.1) from 3.3%, stalling what had been a rapid trend lower, whilst the 5-10Y ahead pressed another tenth higher to 3.1%, back to the top end of the 2.9-3.1% range seen since Aug’21 and just one tenth off a high since 2011.
  • Market measures such as the 5Y breakeven have been better behaved from the Fed’s perspective, especially against lifting commodity prices, but the drifting higher of surveyed findings could add some concern at the margin on the ability to get inflation all the way back to target.
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