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Macro Developments Since March FOMC - Labor [1/2]

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Payrolls at a headline level were about as close to expectations as we see in March, increasing a seasonally adjusted 236k and with minimal downward revisions, but there were various caveats to consider.
  • Notably, the overall figure was again boosted by strong public sector job creation plus a potentially favorable seasonal factor which some analysts saw as adding to the tune of 100k.
  • The unemployment rate meanwhile surprisingly fell back to 3.50% for close to multi-decade lows but participation again improved with the overall rate at a fresh post-pandemic high and the prime-age participation rate consolidating February’s increase to pre-pandemic recent highs of 83.1%.
  • Other factors offered a moderating trend, with both AHE growth and weekly hours worked broadly continuing their downtrend.
  • However, and notably, the still-solid jobs data contrasted with nearly every alternate labor indicator coming in softer in the run up to the release and in turn saw a hawkish reaction in Fed pricing with the May decision at the time seen tilting to more than a 50/50 likelihood of a 25bp hike.


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