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Macro Developments Since March FOMC: Prices [1/2]

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • After a recent string of large surprises, core CPI was broadly as expected and didn’t move the dial.
  • Landing mid-April, core CPI inflation eased from 0.45% to 0.385% M/M but remains stubbornly high as it marked the fourth month with a 0.4% reading to 1 decimal place.
  • The main downside surprise came from a sharp slowing in rents for their softest monthly readings since Apr/Mar’22, generally coming a few months ahead of analysts expectations for the always hard to predict passthrough from softer new lease agreements.
  • However non-housing core services saw only varying degrees of moderation, but perhaps of some comfort were propped up by volatile items that could reverse ahead whilst dispersion measures also generally retreated somewhat.
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