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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
The following notes are taken from MNI's BoC Preview, found here.
Inflation: The September Report Partly Unwound A Surprise August Surge
- There have been two CPI reports squeezed into the seven-week period between BoC meetings. The first was far stronger than expected, with headline jumping from 3.3% to 4.0% (cons 3.8) and most worryingly for the BoC the three-month average of the trim and median measures accelerated from 3.5% to 4.5% annualized.
- Some of that strength was however reversed in the latest report for September, released last week and more freshly in the mind. Headline CPI surprisingly eased back to 3.8% Y/Y (cons 3.8) and the three-month core rate dropped back to 3.7% annualized after the Aug average was revised down 0.2pps to 4.3%.
- It meant three-month core inflation, a rate the BoC has put a lot of emphasis on, fell back into its 3.5-4% range seen since Aug’22 in all but two months now.
- Nevertheless, it’s still stuck in the range that the BoC has started to show increased frustration with (part of the reason for coming off the sidelines with 2x25bp hikes in June and July).
- Headline CPI at 3.8% Y/Y in September left CPI at an average 3.7% Y/Y in Q3 as a whole vs the 3.3% the BoC forecast for Q3 back in July. At the time it saw CPI easing to 2.9% in Q4 (then revised up from 2.5) and 2.2% in 4Q24 (revised up from 2.1%).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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