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Macro Developments Since Sep FOMC - Inflation: Disinflation Progress Falters [2/2]

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  • Latest core PCE data meanwhile accelerated to 0.30% M/M in September from three months averaging 0.17% M/M.
  • It meant a 3-month average rising to 2.5% annualized after a rare return to the 2% target as of August for the first time since Dec’20.
  • The six-month rolling average meanwhile dipped a tenth to 2.8% annualized but the pace of moderation is slowing.
  • The monthly lift in core PCE saw a sizeable contribution from the supercore equivalent bouncing to a strong 0.42% M/M in September, with three-month and six-month averages of 4.0% and 3.5% respectively.
  • We’re left with a trend of decent disinflationary progress compared to the 5% readings in core PCE as recently as 1Q23, but one that has started to stall and with core services excluding housing still far above the 2% target.

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