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Macro Developments Since Sep FOMC - Labor: Booming Job Growth But Wage Growth Easing [2/3]

US
  • Payrolls then followed and confounded a tepid ADP print, instead surging 336k in September for nearly twice as fast as expected and along with a strong 119k two-month upward revision.
  • This was where the overtly hawkish aspects of the report ended though, with average hourly earnings missing expectations for a second month, this time at 0.21% M/M (cons 0.3) for its softest single month since Feb’22.
  • Further, the household survey saw the unemployment rate not give back any of August’s surprise jump to 3.8%, also in keeping with latest FOMC median projections for 4Q23.
  • The combination left a picture of still rampant job creation but with swiftly tempered wage growth.

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