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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
- The combination of the two payrolls reports since the Jul FOMC left an open debate between a 50bp and 75bp hike for the Sept meeting: not strong enough to warrant 75bp in their own right but equally too solid to justify a more dovish pivot (Aug released Sep 2).
- Strong payrolls growth lent support to evidence that the US isn’t already in a recession, adding a rapid 841k jobs in two months and closing the gap to pre-pandemic levels of employment, albeit still notably below in population-adjusted terms.
- However, after signs of a stalling in the recovery of labor supply, including in the July report, participation surged higher in August from year-to-date lows to highs, in turn surprisingly pushing the u/e rate up two tenths to 3.7%.
- It wasn’t a drastic move, coming off joint record lows and where the median FOMC member expects the rate to sit at in Q4, but a larger increase in underemployment and a further drift higher in socio-demographic u/e rate gaps pointed to a modest easing in labor market tightness despite a record 2 job openings for every unemployed.
- Similarly, there was a modest cooling in average hourly earnings growth to a still strong 0.3% M/M, although the Fed is probably more focused on metrics with fewer compositional issues such as the ECI.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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