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Macro Since March FOMC - Inflation: Soft Data One Area Of Hope [3/3]

US
  • If there have been any welcoming signs on the recent inflation front for the Fed, it’s in soft data.
  • The April preliminary PMIs showed service providers reporting the second-lowest overall cost increase for three-and-a-half years and slower charge inflation across both manufacturing and service sectors.
  • It built on the Fed’s Beige Book last week noting “another frequent comment was that firms’ ability to pass cost increases on to consumers had weakened considerably in recent months, resulting in smaller profit margins” whilst the March ISM Services release saw a surprise slide in prices paid to 53.4 from 58.6 for its lowest since the pandemic.
  • However, the stubborn persistence in the hard data suggests the burden of proof is now to the downside, with likely multiple lower inflation readings and a higher unemployment rate needed to entertain near-term rate cuts.

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