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Macro Since The Jan FOMC: Inflation - CPI Bucks 2023 Disinflation Trend [1/3]

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[The following is taken from the MNI Fed Preview - full report found here]
  • CPI annual revisions, released on Feb 9 and highlighted ahead of time by some FOMC participants, proved to be much ado about nothing.
  • Of far more note was the surprise strength in the January CPI report which followed soon after, with core at 0.39% M/M (cons for a slightly ‘low’ 0.3) and “supercore” surging 0.85% M/M.
  • That has recently been followed by a milder upside surprise in the February report, with core CPI at 0.36% M/M (cons 0.3).
  • Some details were softer than that reading implies, but the trend is still moving in the wrong direction for the Fed.
  • The six-month core CPI run rate has increased to 3.9% annualized compared to the 3.2% as of December prior to the January FOMC and supercore CPI stands at 5.9% vs 4.5%.

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