Macron Alliance Loses Legislative Majority As Left, Right Parties Gain

President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble alliance suffered a significant setback in the second round of National Assembly elections that took place on Sunday 19 June. The group lost over 100 seats and with it its majority in the lower chamber of the French Parliament. Gains were made both on the left by the leftist/green/centre-left NUPES alliance, and on the right by Marine Le Pen's nationalist Rassemblement National (RN).

• Without a majority, Macron's bloc will be forced to work either with a large assortment of 'miscellaneous' groups and regionalists, or one of the two main non-Le Pen blocs: NUPES or the Gaullist Union of the Right and Centre. Gaining the support of deputies from any of these blocs will entail concessions on policy and likely providing gov't departments to non-Ensemble ministers.
• For the populist left and populist right the election saw some record-breaking results. For the RN and its predecessor, the Front National, the previous-high in seat terms was the 35 won in the 1986 legislative election, bested significantly in yesterday's vote where the party won 89 seats to become the third-largest grouping.
• NUPES, whose leader Jean-Luc Melenchon has moved from a fringe political figure to the national mainstream over the course of this year's presidential and legislative election campaign, are set to form the main parliamentary opposition to Ensemble after winning 131 seats (a figure that while the best for the populist left on record, was lower than pre-election polls had anticipated).
• Macron is likely to now find it more difficult to enact his policy agenda domestically without compromise and changes in order to gain outside support. This could push the president into more focus on areas of foreign policy, where he has more free reign to act without requiring parliamentary approval.

Chart 1. France 2022 National Assembly Election Result, Seats

Source: Ministry of the Interior, MNI