Macron And Le Pen To Make 2nd Round According To Latest Polls

Latest opinion polls ahead of next year's French presidential elections show incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and right-wing National Rally leader Marine Le Pen on course to have a repeat of the 2017 election, with the candidates coming in first and second place respectively in two first-round scenario polls.

• Scenario: Bertrand as LR (EPP) candidate: Macron (LREM-RE): 26% (+1), Le Pen (RN-ID): 26% (+1), Bertrand (LR-EPP): 15%, Mélenchon (FI-LEFT): 11%. +/- vs. 2-4 March 2021. Fieldwork: 16-19 April 2021. Sample size: 1,210. Harris Interactive.
• Scenario: Pécresse as LR (EPP) candidate: Macron (LREM-RE): 28% (+2), Le Pen (RN-ID): 26% (+1), Pécresse (LR-EPP): 12%, Mélenchon (FI-LEFT): 11%. +/- vs. 2-4 March 2021. Fieldwork: 16-19 April 2021. Sample size: 1,210
• Second Round Scenario: Macron (LREM): 54 % (+1), Le Pen (RN): 46 % (-1). Harris Interactive, 16-19/04/21. +/- vs. 2-4 March 2021. Sample size: 1,210
• At present the centre-right Les Republicains (LR) do not have a set candidate for the presidential election, with Valerie Pecresse - President of the Regional Council of Île-de-France - and Xavier Bertrand - President of the Regional Council of Hauts-de-France - seen as the two frontrunners. This is despite neither being official party members (Pecresse sits as part of her own Soyons Libres party while Bertrand is part of the miscellaneous right)
• While Macron leads Le Pen in second-round run-off polling, the margin is much smaller than that achieved by Macron in the 2017 vote (winning 66.1% to 33.9%) , and in polls of the same scenario at this point in the 2017 race (Macron led Le Pen 61% to 39% in April 2016).