Macron-Gov't To Unveil Pension Reforms On 10 Jan; Faces Stiff Resistance

President Emmanuel Macron has confirmed that the French gov't is set to reveal the latest set of planned pension reforms on 10 January 2023. Speculation had been that the reforms were due to be published on 15 December, but this date has been pushed back by nearly a month.

• The likely reforms are seen as extremely controversial, and include a three year increase of the retirement age from 62 to 65. Trade unions and student organisations have warned of mass strikes whileEuractiv quotesone union group stating that “The government would bear full responsibility for a major social conflict” following the potential pension changes.
• The gov't does not hold a majority in the French National Assembly, and would require support from other parties (most likely the Gaullist Les Republicains) if they want to pass it.
• However, if this proves impossible there is the option to pass the reforms as an amendment to the Social Security budget via the "49-3" mechanism of the French constitution, which allows 'after deliberation by the council of ministers' for a gov't to push through legislation without parliamentary approval.
• Risky prospect as after Paragraph 3 of Article 49 is triggered, deputies have 24 hours to table a motion of no confidence in the gov't. If the majority votes against gov't the law is defeated and gov't falls.
• Would likely fall to Les Republicains once again to decide fate of minority Macron gov't (after not voting for their ouster in previous no confidence votes). New leader Eric Ciotti could change party's stance, though, given his right-wing anti-Macron stance.