Free Trial

Macron Holds Slender Lead Over Le Pen With Debate Less Than A Week Away

FRANCE

Opinion polling ahead of the second round of the French presidential election shows President Emmanuel Macron retaining his lead over right-wing Rassembelement National leader Marine Le Pen, with less than a week to go until the crucial head-to-head debate between the two candidates.

  • Macron continues to record support around the 53-55% level, with Le Pen around 45-47%. This polling is much closer than that recorded at the same point in the 2017 election cycle, when Macron led Le Pen by 59-61% to 39-41%.
  • The debate will take place on Wednesday 20 April, starting at 2100CET (1500ET/2000BST). The 2017 debate between Macron and Le Pen lasted two-and-a-half hours and another lengthy contest is likely this time around.
  • The event is viewed as very important for the outcome of the election. Macron and Le Pen jointly recieved 50.9% of the vote, meaning almost half of the voting electorate have a decision to make on whether to back one of the two remaining candidates or stay at home and not cast a ballot.
  • Le Pen's poor performance in the 2017 presidential debate against Macron was seen as a contributing factor behind Macron's improving polling ratings in the aftermath of the debate and his subsequent comfortable 66-34% win over Le Pen in the run-off vote.
Chart 1. Second Round Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Ifop-Fiducial, OpinionWay/Kea Partners, Harris Interactive, Elabe, Ipsos-SopraSteria, BVA, MNI

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.