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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
PORTUGAL
With the Portuguese parliamentary election just under three weeks away, opinion polling shows a close race between the incumbent centre-left Socialist Party (PS) and the main opposition centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD). Should current polling be reflected in the final result it would likely mean both main groups falling short of an overall majority in the Assembly of the Republic, requiring a period of coalition building.
- This could result in a re-formation of the leftist confidence-and-supply agreement that governed from 2015-2019. This involved the PS, the democratic socialist Left Bloc (BE), the communist Unitary Democratic Coalition (UDC), the environmenalist, pro-animal rights People-Animals-Nature (PAN), and the progressive green LIVRE.
- Alternatively, Portugal could see a major shift to the right if the AD - formed in January by the joining of the centre-left Social Democrats (PSD), the conservative CDS-People's Party, and the People's Monarchist Party (PPM) - comes to terms with the libertarian Liberal Initiative (IL) or right-wing populist Chega! (Enough!).
- Following the resignation of PM Antonio Costa in November 2023 following a corruption probewithin his gov't, Justice Minister Pedro Nuno Santos, hailing from the left of the PS, won the internal election to stand as the PS' PM candidate. He will square off against AD leader Luis Montenegro.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 5-Poll Moving Average
Source: Aximage, Consulmark, Intercampus, CESOP-UCP, ICS/ISCTE, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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