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Maintaining Yesterday’s Trimming Of Fed Cut Expectations

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed to marginally lower overnight with seemingly very little spillover from BoE hike expectations pushing higher on strong wage data and the PBOC cutting two key rates after softer economic data.
  • Near-term meetings still show +2.5bp for Sep (unch) and a cumulative +9.5bp for Nov (-0.5bp) to a terminal 5.43%.
  • Cuts from the Nov terminal hold yesterday’s trimming to the lowest since the July FOMC, with 47bp to Jun’24 and 113bp to Dec’24.
  • Kashkari (’23 voter) speaks at 1100ET after what has only been very limited commentary from him since Jul 26. He noted simply that the Fed is willing to continue raising rates on Jul 30 but we watch if there is more pushback on Williams and Harker recently beginning to talk more on timing of 2024 rate cuts (even if rate cuts are explicitly shown in the dots).

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