Manchin Appears To Rule Out Third Party Presidential Bid

WaPo reporting that Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) has ruled out running for president in November, ending speculation that he could mount a third-party bid which Democrats feared could syphon off votes from President Biden.

• Manchin, who is not running for Senate re-election next year, has been publicly mulling over a third-party bid with the organisation No Labels. Speculation increased yesterday when Manchin suggested outgoing moderate Republican Senator Mitt Romey (R-UT) as a potential running mate.
• If the Manchin report is confirmed, and following a decision by No Labels co-chair Larry Hogan to step away for the organisation to run for the open Maryland Senate seat, it leaves the future of the group unclear.
• In an assumed 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, third-party and independent presidential bids are widely considered more damaging to Biden, as his core base is less engaged than Trump's.
• With Manchin out of the running, the primary third-party threat is now likely to come from Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who is currently sounding out running for the Libertarian Party nomination later this month. The Libertarian nomination it would give Kennedy nationwide ballot access, one of the key impediments to an independent bid, despite his potential to win up 20% of the vote, according to some recent polls.
• That vote share, whilst no enough to make him an Electoral College contender, could be significant enough to influence the result in a number of key swing states.