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March CPI Inflation Due At 1300BST

MEXICO
  • March CPI inflation data will cross at 1300BST (0800ET), which are likely to show an uptick in headline inflation, while highlighting the stickiness of core, particularly core services inflation. Analysts expect the headline rate to rise to 4.50% y/y, while core inflation is expected to hold broadly unchanged at 4.63% y/y.
  • JP Morgan note that sequential data on the core side remain concerning, although this is amplified by seasonal factors. Their March/April forecasts suggest that services ex. housing and education is running at ~0.45%m/m, almost double its historical norm. Itaú, however, think that core pressures from tourism-related factors, due to Easter, may partially ease in the second half of March, which will be highlighted in the bi-weekly CPI data also released at 1300BST.
    • March CPI MoM, est. 0.36%, prior 0.09%
    • March CPI YoY, est. 4.50%, prior 4.40%
    • March CPI Core MoM, est. 0.51%, prior 0.49%
    • March CPI Core YoY, est. 4.63%, prior 4.64%

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