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March CPI Mini-Preview – Food Prices A Source Of Uncertainty

NORWAY

Norwegian March CPI is due tomorrow, with analysts expecting CPI-ATE at 4.7% Y/Y (vs 4.9% prior) and 0.4% M/M (vs 0.4% prior). This is the only CPI report before the Norges Bank’s May 3 meeting.

  • Following the stronger-than-expected wage agreements over the weekend (relative to the Norges Bank’s March MPR forecasts and the Q1 ’24 Regional Network Survey), a higher-than-expected CPI-ATE print may prompt Governor Wolden Bache to soften her March press conference guidance at the upcoming May meeting (which pointed toward a likely rate cut in September).
  • Such a print will also support the NOK’s recent oil-inspired strength against the EUR and SEK.
  • The Norges Bank forecasted March CPI-ATE at 4.7% Y/Y in the March MPR.
  • Regional analysts generally expect core goods prices to pull CPI-ATE lower in March, but uncertainty remains over the development of food prices.
  • Historically, food prices have fallen in March (after rising in February as grocers undertake bi-annual price adjustments). However, last month food prices fell on an NSA monthly basis.
  • See the image below for a selection of analyst views:



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