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March Fed Cut Expectations Drop To Lowest Since Dec FOMC

STIR
  • 2Y Tsys sitting unchanged from Friday’s close is consistent with the little change in end-2024 Fed Funds rate implying 135bp of cuts for the year.
  • However, and unusually, it’s come with implied rates for March to June meetings rising 1.5-2bps on the day.
  • In particular, March now has 10.5bp of cumulative cuts priced with its implied rate on track for the highest close since Dec 12 (the day before the FOMC’s dovish pivot).
  • Similarly, June pricing has slipped to 55bp of cumulative cuts (vs 79bp before Waller last week on the need for a methodological, careful approach to cuts), with its implied rate also set to close at highs since Dec 12.

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