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March Fed Hike Briefly Dips Back Below 50% Implied Post-Data

STIR

March 25bp Fed hike dips back below 50% (vs a pause) implied after weaker than expected PPI (and lower revisions) and Empire manufacturing, despite Retail Sales on the strong side (esp control group at +0.5% vs -0.3% expected, and upward revision to Jan).

  • Hike pricing has since bounced a couple of basis points, but the data on balance probably don't add much impetus to the case for a hike next week.

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