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March IPCA-15 Inflation Data Scheduled For Tomorrow

BRAZIL
  • Despite the early Real strength at the open, USDBRL (+0.95%) has reversed higher throughout the course of Thursday as markets continue to ponder the ongoing spat between the central bank and the administration over the current level of interest rates.
  • USDBRL short-term conditions remain bullish. Price action on Mar 15 highlights a test above resistance at 5.3073, the Feb 10 high and a key hurdle for bulls. This opens 5.3518 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 4 - Feb 2 bear leg, ahead of the 5.4000 handle. Initial support lies at 5.2038, today’s intraday low and just below the 50-day EMA.
  • On Friday, markets will receive the latest read of March IPCA-15 inflation data where currently the median surveyed estimate looks for a decline to 5.33% Y/y from 5.60% at the full February reading.
  • Mid-March headline inflation will likely slow from the prior figure as seasonal pressure from school tuitions wanes. Housing may lead price gains due to changes in taxation of electricity, as well as transportation after federal taxes on fuel were partially restored in early March.
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