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March Retail Sales, Banxico Minutes Scheduled

MEXICO
  • USDMXN continues to slowly grind lower, narrowing the gap with key support at 19.7274, the Apr 4 low. A break would confirm a resumption of a bear cycle that started on Nov 26 last year.
  • The central bank will release the minutes from its May 12 meeting at 1500BST/1000ET.
  • As a reminder, Banxico raised rates by a further 50bps to a new cycle high of 7.00% at the May meeting, alongside consensus. The bank also upped their inflation forecasts across the forecast horizon, but retained their view that convergence to the inflation target will occur in Q1 2024.
  • The outside risk of a member voting for faster tightening materialized, with Espinosa opting for a 75bps hike at this meeting.
  • 1200BST/0700ET: March Retail Sales M/m, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8%
  • 1200BST/0700ET: March Retail Sales Y/y, est. 2.7%, prior 6.4%
  • Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard to hold press conference with his Argentine counterpart Santiago Cafiero during Cafiero’s visit to Mexico.

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