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NORWAY: Marginal Upward Revision To 2025 Oil and Gas Investment Expectations

NORWAY
CommoditiesEnergy BulletsCEEMEABulletNorwayMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Respondents to Statistics Norway’s Q4 oil and gas investment survey marginally revised their 2025 investment intensions higher relative to Q3, now at NOK254bln from NOK253bln prior. 

  • The initial estimate provided for 2026 investments was NOK197bln. This is the second-highest ever initial estimate (4% below the initial estimate of NOK205bln for 2025). Estimates are generally revised higher through the year (see chart).
  • Total 2024 investments were NOK251bln, up 16.7% from 2023. High investments in 2023 and 2024 were largely driven by the post-covid tax package, which applied to PDOs (plan for development and operation) submitted before the end of 2022. High product prices also necessitated higher nominal investment spending.
  • In real terms, annual oil and gas gross fixed capital formation growth was 9.6% in 2024, slightly below Norges Bank’s 10.0% December MPR projection. Norges Bank expects annual oil and gas investment growth to ease to 4.0% in 2025, before turning negative in 2026 (-6.0%) and 2027 (-5.0%). This pullback is expected to drag on headline GDP growth. 

 

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Respondents to Statistics Norway’s Q4 oil and gas investment survey marginally revised their 2025 investment intensions higher relative to Q3, now at NOK254bln from NOK253bln prior. 

  • The initial estimate provided for 2026 investments was NOK197bln. This is the second-highest ever initial estimate (4% below the initial estimate of NOK205bln for 2025). Estimates are generally revised higher through the year (see chart).
  • Total 2024 investments were NOK251bln, up 16.7% from 2023. High investments in 2023 and 2024 were largely driven by the post-covid tax package, which applied to PDOs (plan for development and operation) submitted before the end of 2022. High product prices also necessitated higher nominal investment spending.
  • In real terms, annual oil and gas gross fixed capital formation growth was 9.6% in 2024, slightly below Norges Bank’s 10.0% December MPR projection. Norges Bank expects annual oil and gas investment growth to ease to 4.0% in 2025, before turning negative in 2026 (-6.0%) and 2027 (-5.0%). This pullback is expected to drag on headline GDP growth. 

 

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