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Marginally Richer After Technical Recession Confirmed

BONDS

NZGB's have finished dealing 1-2bps richer across the major benchmarks, the curve has bull flattened.

  • This mornings Q1 GDP print confirmed a technical recession in New Zealand. The Q/Q print was in line with expectations at -0.1%, and the Y/Y print was a touch lower than expected at +2.2%.
  • NZGBs head post GDP gains through the session.
  • Terminal RBNZ rate pricing has ticked lower in OIS markets. A terminal rate of 5.61% is now seen against 5.64% pre data, there are also ~40bps of cuts priced for 2024.
  • On the wires early tomorrow we have May BusinessNZ Mfg PMI, there is no estimate and the prior read was 49.1
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