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Market Inflation Expectations Move Nearer To Highs

US
  • Long-term market inflation expectations are finishing the week back above where they started, with the 10Y breakeven at 3.00% and 5Y5Y breakeven at 2.55% having troughed more than 10bps lower mid-week.
  • The 5Y5Y inflation swap has been far more volatile and shows less of a pick-up at 2.75%, but all three measures remain towards the high end of recent ranges.
  • Earlier, core PCE inflation held at +0.29% M/M from a downward revised Feb, cooling from four consecutive months of ~0.5% M/M.
  • Both the Dallas Fed trimmed mean and Cleveland Fed median measures show a marginally larger drop in March from Feb, with the DF trimmed slowing from 4% to 3.1% annualised and the CF median at 0.28% M/M after 6 six months above 0.4% M/M.

10Y breakeven (pink), 5Y5Y breakeven (green) and 5Y5Y inflation swap (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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