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Market Pricing In A Terminal Rate Between 5.5% and 5.75%

CZECHIA
  • Governor Rusnok mentioned in an interview yesterday that Czech rates may rise slightly more, but the move won’t be major.
  • Forward rates have been down in recent days; with the FRA 6Mx9M trading at 63bps above the Pribor 3M, the market is currently pricing in a terminal rate between 5. 5% and 5.75%.
  • Implied vol on EURCZK has been falling in the past week, with the pair oscillating within a tight range between 24.40 and 24.50, ST key support to watch on the downside stands at 24.30.
  • Czech 10Y yield has been consolidating lower in the past few days, gradually approaching its 4% support; a break below that level would open the door for a move down to 3.85%. On the topside, resistance to watch stands at 4.14%.
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