Market Roundup

While markets cautiously optimistic over limited Russia troop pullback from Ukraine border this morning, wariness over gap moves on geopolitical risks are outweighing effects of hawkish Fed-speak.

• StL Fed Pres Bullard reprised his hawkish stance on CNBC Monday morning after green-lighting 50bps March lift-off and suggesting potential for off-meeting move late last Thursday.
• Real-vol delivery: Markets also reacted positively early Monday to Russia official Lavrov comments over keeping negotiations open, but late headlines purporting satellite images of Russia troop movements closer to Ukraine border and headline that Ukraine Pres Zelensky told Russia invasion would proceed Wed (apparently tied to mistranslated comments made in a speech hours prior) kept traders on their back foot amid risk-off tone change.
• Equities currently trading stronger but off highs: SPX eminis +54.0 at 4448.0, Gold weaker -20.04, WTI crude -2.22 at 93.24. US$ index DXY weaker by .362 to 96.011.
• Technicals: TYH2 near lows at 125-21.5 (-10) just above first support of 125-17.5, Feb 10 low/bear trigger -- a break would confirm a resumption of the current downtrend.
• A bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs, together with a bear mode set-up in moving averages suggests the path of least resistance remains down. Scope is seen for a move to 125-06+ next, 30 May 2019 low (cont). Firm resistance is seen at 127-01.