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Market Roundup: Buy the Rumor Sell the News

US TSYS
Markets reacted the way one would expect following the Russia/Ukraine news last night: gap bid in rates/safe havens on Russia formally recognizing and in short order inserting "peacekeeping" forces into Ukraine separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
  • Buy the rumor sell the news? Selling into strength ensued with rates trading sideways (USH from 154-00 to 154-16) until early London trade -- risk-off/safe haven support evaporated around headlines that Russian parliament "backed off wider separatist recognition claims". Cold comfort that as legislators discussed separatist sphere of influence in eastern Ukraine (appr 30% of Donetsk and Luhansk and not the whole region).
  • Bonds reversed, traded steadily lower into the NY open, 30YY climbed from 2.1759% overnight low to 2.2673%, 2.2500% last. Measured response via sanctions from US and allies lending to relative calm at the moment as U.S. desks re-staff following the extended holiday weekend.
  • Technicals: TYH2 first support remains 125-17+ Feb 10 low and bear trigger; first resistance/ intraday-high at 127-09.
    • Rates traded lower from levels just above the 20-day EMA - the average intersects at 126-30+. Despite recent gains, the trend outlook remains bearish. Moving average conditions point south and a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs is intact.
    • On the upside, a resumption of gains would open the 50-day EMA at 128-03+.
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