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Market Roundup: Bearish Trend Remains Despite FI Bounce

US TSYS

Tsy futures trading mostly higher, curves flatter with long end outperforming -- 30Y bonds bouncing back near late overnight highs, 30YY currently 2.9373% vs. 2.9192% low. Carry-over flattening off early Tue's highs: 2s10s -5.162 at 28.470.

  • Little react to in-line March reading of Existing Home Sales of 5.77M units annualized, or -2.7% MoM.
  • Bond yield had climbed to new 3-year high of 3.0285% in early Asia hours before the Bank of Japan offered to conduct an unlimited purchase of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). That put the brakes on surge in yields as they retreated into the NY open.
  • However, early trade has seen multiple Block sales through the bid in 5s and 10s this morning (not to mention SOFR 3M futures as very front end prices in 2-3 50bps hikes over the next 3 meetings.
  • Bearish overall trend remains -- while short term gains are considered corrective: Initial firm resistance has been defined at 121-09, the Apr 14 high.
  • On the flipside - primary downtrend and an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. MA studies also point south and scope is for a move towards 118-02+ next, a Fibonacci projection.
  • Cross-assets: Gold making modest gains after Tue's sell-off, currently at 1951.41 (+1.32); Crude prices weaker, WTI -0.31 at 102.25.

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