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Market Roundup: Extends lows Post Data, StL Fed Bullard

US TSYS

FI futures making new post-data lows (30YY taps 3.1442 high), retail sales excl autos better than est at 0.6% (0.4% est), control group +1.0% vs. 0.8% est. Yield curves holding flatter levels but off lows: 2s10s -1.231 at 29.395, 5s30s -2.223 at 3.192%.

  • Volume picks up (TYM2>470k) as mkt digests data in addition to StL Fed Bullard comments at EIC conf: 50bp hikes "at coming meetings"; market vol "reflects policy outlook repricing". While Bullard says the Fed has a good plan in place to address inflation -- has yet to mention recession risk for US (did say doesn't think Europe will go into recession). Last week, Bullard stated recession is "not that high for the US" while the "current strong jobs market is not consistent with recession risk.
  • Next up: Philly Fed Harker healthcare economic driver, 0915ET.
  • US 10Y technicals with TYM2 currently trading 119-02.5 (-19): Tsy are consolidating. The primary downtrend remains intact, however, a corrective cycle established last week remains in play, suggesting potential for short-term gains.
  • A rebound/rally would open 120-18+, the Apr 27 high. This level represents an important short-term resistance where a break would signal scope for a stronger retracement. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 117-08+.
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