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Market Roundup: Tsy Ylds Grind Higher, Yield Curves Steeper

US TSYS

Tsys trading weaker, bouncing off recent lows (30YY tapped 3.0442% high, 3.0361% last). Rates extended lows prior to positive but not market moving April Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.47 vs. 0.50 est (March down-revision to 0.36 from 0.44).
Otherwise, No obvious headline driver or block print to explain the initial move, while futures currently moving back near lows.

  • Yield curves mildly steeper, 2s10s +3.152 at 22.577, 5s30s still inverted but off lows at -0.532 (+1.617).
  • Decent overall Tsy volumes tied to Jun/Sep rolling, FVM/FVU over 200k already -- nearly half total volume for FVM currently 490k.
  • US 10Y technicals with TYM2 currently trading 119-27.5 (-8.5): Treasuries last week traded above 120-00+, May 12 high, and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The primary trend direction is down though and gains are still considered corrective.
  • Any resumption of strength would open 120-18+, the Apr 27 high. This level represents an important short-term resistance where a break would signal scope for a stronger retracement. Key support and the bear trigger is 117-08+, May 9 low.
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