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Market Roundup: Tsys Off Lows After Mixed Housing, Strong IP/CapU Data

US TSYS

Tsys remain weaker, intermediates to long end off midmorning lows with yield curves mixed (2s10s +0.589 at -39.464, 5s30s -3.084 at 16.900).

  • Tsys extended session lows after mixed data: Housing starts weaker for third consecutive month (1.446M), Building Permits down 1.3% on the month still better than expected for second consecutive month (1.674M).
  • Bonds extended lows yet again (30YY tapping 3.1703% high) after Industrial Production (+0.6% vs. 0.3% est), Capacity Utilization (80.3% vs. 80.2% est) both stronger than expected.
  • Rates have since bounced off lows amid two-way flow session data out of the way, participants migrating to the sidelines ahead Wed's Retail Sales (0.1% est vs. 1.0% prior) not to mention July FOMC minutes release later in the session.
  • Technicals for TYU2 currently trading 119-11 (-11.5) sustained losses through midmorning as prices fail to make any headway on 120-00 handle and 120-22 post-CPI high. Weakness at tail-end of last wk put contract through trendline support: 119-16 (Jun 16 low). Sales still considered corrective, however, the trendline break suggests a deeper retracement is likely near-term. This has opened 118-05, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 120-22, the Aug 10 high. A break would signal a possible bullish reversal.
  • Additional trade tied to corporate debt issuance ($4.5B ADB 5Y SOFR+40 priced, several others including $3B KFW WNG 2Y SOFR and Goldman Sachs) generating two-way hedging/unwinds. Gradual pick-up in Sep/Dec roll volume as well.
  • Currently, 2-Yr yield is up 5bps at 3.2323%, 5-Yr is up 5.8bps at 2.9581%, 10-Yr is up 4.5bps at 2.8331%, and 30-Yr is up 2.1bps at 3.1225%.
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