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Market Roundup: FI/EQ Gap Bid and Gaining Post-CPI

US TSYS
Huge relief rally in rates and stocks (ESZ2 +160.0) continues after lower than expected Oct CPI +0.4% MoM vs. 0.6% est, core +0.27% unrounded vs forecast of 0.5%.
  • Heavy outright buying/short covering across the curve (TYZ2>1.4M already) as cooling inflation metric weighs on Dec rate hike expectations: Dec cumulative down to 50.9bp vs. 57.5bp earlier, 84.9bp to 4.69% for Feb'23 with terminal in May'23 at 4.835%.
  • Dallas Fed Logan: "While I believe it may soon be appropriate to slow the pace of rate increases so we can better assess how financial and economic conditions are evolving, I also believe a slower pace should not be taken to represent easier policy," she said in openings remarks at a Fed conference.
  • WSJ Fed whisperer Timiraos: "The October inflation report is likely to keep the Fed on track to approve a 50-basis-point interest-rate increase next month Officials had already signaled they wanted to slow the pace of rises and were somewhat insensitive to near-term inflation data".
  • Eurodollar futures lead quarterly EDZ2 +8.5 at 94.985, balance of Whites (EDH3-EDU3) +0.200-0.320. Current 30YY 4.100% (-.1684), 10YY 3.8536 (-.2368) while yield curves bull steepen, levels off initial highs: 2s10s currently +2.636 at -46.711 vs. -41.222 high.
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