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Market Roundup: Implied Hike Steady After In-Line Data

US TSYS

Tsys holding weaker levels at midday, off late morning highs to near middle of range through early overnight trade. Tsy 30YY currently 3.6479 +.0082, vs. 3.6845% high)

  • Higher than expected Japanese CPI data overnight (+4.4% Y/Y; MEDIAN 4.0%; Dec 3.9%) got the ball rolling overnight, Tsys extending lows ahead the NY open.
  • Tsys see-sawed off lows drawing modest buying in intermediates to long end after largely in-line data: personal income +0.2%; NOM PCE -0.2%, modest lower revision to prior. Little react to midmorning Pending Home Sales (+2.5% MOM; -33.8% YOY) and UofM sentiment 64.9; est. 64.6.
  • Fed funds implied hike for Feb'23 at 25.8bp (-0.8), Mar'23 cumulative steady at 46.9bp to 4.798%, May'23 56.8bp to 4.897%, terminal at 4.905% in Jun'23.
  • Focus on next week Wed's FOMC policy annc, dovish risks to this meeting appear at least partly priced in, including some expectations of Statement language acknowledging decelerating inflation, or a clear signal that the end of the hiking cycle is near.
  • Next employment report covering January out next Friday as well, current median est at +175k vs. +223k prior.
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