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Market Roundup: Off Post-ADP Lows, Narrow Ranges Ahead FOMC

US TSYS
Tsy futures back to mildly higher levels at the moment, short end underperforming w/ yield curves well off earlier highs. Rather decent overall volumes (TYZ2>600k) as market awaits likely 75bp hike from FOMC this afternoon.
  • Tsys had pared gains after higher than expected Oct ADP jobs gain earlier: +239k vs. +185k est, Sep down-revision to +192k from +208k.
  • Futures see-sawed higher/extended highs in the minutes after Tsy Qtr Refunding annc: expected nominal coupon sizes were left unchanged across the board for the coming quarter; 20Y Note sizes were maintained, though there had been some anticipation that they could be pared. (20s underperformed in the aftermath of the announcement.)
  • Dec Tsy 10Y futures at 110-23 (+4.5) still near wk’s lows and below last week’s high of 111-31 on Oct 27 - the key short-term resistance. A break of this hurdle would signal scope for an extension higher near-term and expose the 50-day EMA at 113-00. Monday’s low of 110-12 is first support where a break would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 108-26+, the Oct 21 low and the bear trigger.
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