BOC SAYS DOESN'T NEED TO ALTER PATH OF QT RIGHT NOW

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RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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Market Roundup: Short End Back Near March FOMC Levels

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures trading firmer for the most part, curves flatter (2s10s -3.767 at -63.574) with Bonds outperforming mildly weaker short end rates (2s currently -1.38 at 102-29.75, yield +.0131 at 4.2073).
  • Short end rates reversed support, traded weaker soon after StL Fed President Bullard reiterated in a Reuters interview his call for higher rates while avoiding "extensive forward guidance at the next FOMC meeting."
  • Fed fund pricing for 25bp rate hike for May holds steady while June gained climbed to 27.5 cumulative at 5.104%; chances of Dec cut has receded back near March 22 FOMC level of appr -22bp at 4.603%.
  • From a technical point of view after the 10Y futures contract breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs Monday, a continuation lower would signal scope for weakness towards 114-07, the Mar 29, 30 low and 113.26, the Mar 22 low. The latest bear cycle does appear to be a correction.
  • A reversal higher and a break of resistance at 116-08, Apr 12 high, would signal a resumption of the uptrend and expose 117-01+, the Mar 24 high and the bull trigger.
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