MNI: FED'S BARKIN STILL CONFIDENT UNDERLYING INFLATION FALLING

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, January 3

MNI China Press Digest Jan 3:RRR Cut Mooted, Yuan, Consumption

MNI BRIEF: Beijing Boosts Consumer Trade-ins To Cellphones

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY88.5 Bln via OMO Fri

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1878 Fri; -2.29% Y/Y

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -116 BCF TO 3,413 BCF JAN 03 WK

MNI: US ISM DEC MANUF PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 49.3

MNI: UK NOV M4 MONEY SUPPLY +0% M/M, +2.9% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

FOREX: Markets Await First Major Directional Cue

FOREX
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • Currency markets are starting 2025 by buying AUD and NZD, while selling CAD, GBP and the USD. Headlines remain few and far between here, as markets await the first true price action signals of the year.
  • GBP/USD's run below 1.2500 on relatively little news or cross market flow should be seen as a sign of fragility - particularly as it exposes the bear trigger at 1.2476. Weakness through here puts the rate at the lowest level since May and would resume the downtrend posted off the September high.
  • JPY had traded as the firmest performer in G10, possibly on the withdrawal of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, however the only muted response in energy prices across Europe has tempered any broader reaction.
  • Outside of President-Elect Trump's inauguration in 3 weeks time, the first priority for markets looks to be a possible BoJ rate hike on January 24th - for which market pricing is steady at a 40% chance for a 25bps rate rise.
  • Year-ahead Vols remain very firm. EUR/USD one-year implied volatility finished 2024 north of 7.8 points for the highest year-end reading since 2022 and continues to trend higher for the most persistent rally since Russia invaded Ukraine that year.
  • Weekly US jobless claims numbers and the final PMI releases across the US, Canada and Europe mark the highlights - there are no central bank speakers of note, for which markets will have to wait until Friday for Fed's Barkin, ECB's Lane.
239 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Currency markets are starting 2025 by buying AUD and NZD, while selling CAD, GBP and the USD. Headlines remain few and far between here, as markets await the first true price action signals of the year.
  • GBP/USD's run below 1.2500 on relatively little news or cross market flow should be seen as a sign of fragility - particularly as it exposes the bear trigger at 1.2476. Weakness through here puts the rate at the lowest level since May and would resume the downtrend posted off the September high.
  • JPY had traded as the firmest performer in G10, possibly on the withdrawal of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, however the only muted response in energy prices across Europe has tempered any broader reaction.
  • Outside of President-Elect Trump's inauguration in 3 weeks time, the first priority for markets looks to be a possible BoJ rate hike on January 24th - for which market pricing is steady at a 40% chance for a 25bps rate rise.
  • Year-ahead Vols remain very firm. EUR/USD one-year implied volatility finished 2024 north of 7.8 points for the highest year-end reading since 2022 and continues to trend higher for the most persistent rally since Russia invaded Ukraine that year.
  • Weekly US jobless claims numbers and the final PMI releases across the US, Canada and Europe mark the highlights - there are no central bank speakers of note, for which markets will have to wait until Friday for Fed's Barkin, ECB's Lane.