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Markets Await NBP Rate Decision, Election Campaign Enters Final Stages

POLAND
  • The market is in waiting mode ahead of tomorrow's highly uncertain NBP rate decision. Consensus (16/33 economists in a Bloomberg survey) looks for a 25bp cut to the main policy rate, but 9 analysts expect a 50bp cut, 1 expects a 75bp move, while 7 are looking for a pause. The decision will be announced tomorrow (there is no fixed time for the announcement) and will be followed by a press conference with Governor Adam Glapinski on Thursday. Click here to see our preview.
  • Poland enters the final phase of the election campaign, with all parties escalating their rhetoric ahead of the tightly contested October 15 polls. Local media outlets report that state-owned network TVP has invited six main parties to participate in a debate on October 9 at 20:00BST/21:00CEST. Such debates have become a rare occurrence amid the increasingly antagonistic political culture and it is uncertain if opposition parties will accept the invitation, with the ruling PiS party refusing to participate in recent debates hosted by the private TVN24. The attendance of opposition politicians may depend on the outcome of Wednesday's meeting with TVP representatives to discuss the details.
  • Agriculture Minister Robert Telus met online with his Ukrainian and Lithuanian counterparts to discuss the transit of Ukrainian grain. The officials agreed that controls of grain transports will be conducted in the Lithuanian seaport rather than on the Polish-Ukrainian border, which should allow for the transit of more grain via Poland.
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