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Markets Continue to Position For Higher EUR Via Options

EUR
  • The ECB's hawkish turn last week continues to play out via both rates markets pricing as well as currency options, with some of the more sizeable options structures so far Wednesday tied to the risk of a near-term EUR rally.
  • Call strikes layered between 1.1450-1.1500 have been in solid demand throughout the morning, with over $1bln notional wagered between those levels. This sentiment is mirrored in vol markets, with front-end risk reversals holding the bulk of the post-ECB gains - the 1m risk reversal trades either side of +0.2 points, signaling a bias for EUR/USD upside not seen consistently since late 2020.
  • This chimes well with the near-term technical outlook, with recent consolidation forming a potential bull flag, reinforcing bullish conditions following last week's gains and clearance of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The focus is on 1.1558, a Fibonacci retracement.
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