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Markets digest yesterday's Fed decision, BOE decision due

BONDS
  • Following yesterday's post-Fed move higher in USTs we have seen European govvies cash move higher this morning on the open, but we have generally drifted a little lower in the European morning session. Indeed, TY1 and Bund futures are both off their overnight highs and gilt futures have also moved notably lower since the open.
  • So far this morning we have seen the SNB and Norges Bank push through their expected hikes of 50bp and 25bp respectively and the market is now focused on the Bank of England's decision which is due at 12:00GMT / 8:00ET. The MNI Markets team expects a 25bp hike following yesterday's stronger-than-expected inflation print (with the reversal of the January downside surprise to services inflation the tipping point in our view for the three centrist members). Markets are pricing in around 23bp for today's meeting, up from 14bp prior to the inflation print. We continue to expect 2-3 MPC members to vote for unchanged rates (Cunliffe potentially joining the doves). Note there is no MPR or press conference today. For the full MNI BOE Preview click here.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-6 today at 115-09 with 10y UST yields up 3.4bp at 3.471% and 2y yields up 1.6bp at 3.955%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.79 today at 136.20 with 10y Bund yields down -5.7bp at 2.268% and Schatz yields down -7.7bp at 2.618%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.25 today at 104.11 with 10y yields down -0.8bp at 3.439% and 2y yields down -5.3bp at 3.424%.
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