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Markets Look Through Comments From ECB Governing Council Member Storunaras

STIR

No impact on April '24 ECB OIS pricing in the wake of comments from Governing Council member Stournaras.

  • Stournaras told Politico that pricing surrounding an April ’24 rate cut seems “a little optimistic,” while he pointed to mid ’24 as a more likely setting for such a move, if inflation is slightly below 3% and points to sustained decline to 2%.
  • Stournaras also stressed that an early end to PEPP reinvestments “would break a commitment - that could affect our credibility and, therefore, the effectiveness of our policies.”
  • A reminder that he is one of the more dovish Governing Council members, which suggests that summer ’24 seems to present the earliest window for meaningful discussions re: cuts, based on the Bank’s current assumptions.
  • Market pricing remains a little more aggressive, hence Stournaras’ comments re: an April cut. April ’24 ECB-dated OIS shows ~22bp of cuts. Further out, ~41bp of cuts are priced through June ’24.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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