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Markets Look to Agbal to Soothe Inflation Fears

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY opens higher post-Fed following a bout of $ buying during yesterday's session, despite Powell batting away concerns of QE tapering and higher inflation.
  • Spot pulled higher to retest 7.4288 resistance ahead to the key focal point today - the CBRT inflation report. Markets monitoring the end-2021 inflation forecast for signs of policy tightness and degree to which the CBRT believes it has anchored inflation.
  • A higher estimate above the 9.5% prior estimate may weigh negatively on TRY assets on expectations for a more dovish tilt or speculated concerns that the CBRT believes underlying price pressures to be stickier than previously anticipated.
  • However, maintained targets and a hawkish tone on "maintaining a tightness in policy until price pressures are permanently reduced" should reassure markets of a hawkish stance and support more inflows into TRY assets, whose broad carry appeal has been noted as highly attractive in the EM space.
  • Move through 7.4288 opens up Res2: 7.4498, Res3: 7.4679, Sup1: 7.3876, Sup2: 7.3725
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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