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Markets Mixed as Relief Rally Pauses

EQUITIES
  • The relief rally off the week's lows hit pause early Thursday, with sentiment knocked by mixed reports in eastern Ukraine of shell fire being exchanged in the disputed Donbas region. While both the Ukrainian and Russian military have vehemently denied responsibility (likely leaving domestic Ukrainian separatists at fault), markets remain shaky, with Spanish, Italian and UK indices in the red at the NY crossover.
  • Similarly, US futures are lower, indicating a negative open at the bell later today. Losses are broad-based, but modest underperformance is noted in the tech and growth-led NASDAQ, which sits 0.7% below water.
  • Europe's energy sector is reversing recent outperformance, and is the weakest so far Thursday, while consumer discretionary and utilities are at the top of the Stoxx600.
  • Intraday volatility for stocks underpins the fragility of headline markets at this stage, with corrective intraday rallies proving particularly shallow. This keeps the outlook pointed lower for now, with downside impetus strengthened by the failure of the e-mini S&P to hold above the 50-day EMA - at 4549.15. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable despite the Wednesday bounce. Last week, the contract failed to hold above the 50-day EMA - at 4188.70. This average still represents a key resistance point where a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery and open 4324.50, Jan 13 high.

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