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Markets Roundup: FI Well Off Post-Jobs Data Lows, EQ Near Highs

US TSYS
  • Still weaker after the bell, Tsy futures clung to a narrow range since midday after bouncing off post-data lows with stocks, ignoring prospect of tighter policy following this morning's strong Sep job gains (+336k vs. +170k est).
  • Further slowing in average hourly earnings and the softening in trend growth for non-supervisory roles makes a further pullback in the Employment Cost Index for the coming quarters.
  • Treasury futures still shy of the pre-data levels: TYZ3 currently at 106-27.5 (-14.5) vs. 107-10 high, well off initial technical resistance at 107-14 (Oct 3 high) followed by firm resistance at 108-12, the 20-day EMA.
  • Heavy volumes recorded after the bell, TYZ3 >2.1M, curves well off this morning's highs: 3M10Y +5.424 at -73.751 vs. -63.477 high, 2Y10Y +.679 at -29.925 vs. -24.882 high (least inverted since October 2022).
  • Cross asset summary: Greenback reversed post data highs - making session lows (DXY -.275 at 106.057 vs. 106.974 high), Gold higher (+10.25 at 1830.55), crude making modest gain (WTI +0.58 at 82.89). Stocks near late session highs: S&P E-Mini futures are up 54.75 points (1.28%) at 4345.25, Nasdaq up 204.4 points (1.5%) at 13423.76, DJIA up 336.95 points (1.02%) at 33455.87.
  • Looking ahead to next week: September PPI and FOMC minutes on Wednesday, CPI Thursday.

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