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Markets Roundup: Surprise Jobs Gain Tempered by Down-Revisions

US TSYS
  • Tsy futures gap lower after slightly stronger than expected Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (+199k vs. 183k est, +150k prior), Change in Private Payrolls softer (+150k vs.158k est, 99k prior), Unemployment Rate dips to 3.7% vs. 3.9% est.
  • Futures quickly scaled back appr half the initial post-data sell-off as markets digested the down-revisions to prior and unrounded releases.
  • U.S. employers added more jobs than expected in November and average hourly earnings growth was also hotter than expected, which could add to the Federal Reserve's resolve to keep rates higher for longer to cool the labor market and rein in inflation. Projected rate cut for March 2024 consolidated from -55.2% pre-data to -44.5% by the close, May 2024 down to -63.5% vs. -70.1% pre-data.
  • Average hourly earnings added 0.4% in November, a tenth higher than expected and marking a gain of 4.0% over the past 12 months. The employment-to-population rate rose 0.3 percentage point as the labor force continued to expand.
  • Tsys held off lows following higher than expected U. of Mich. Expectations that climbed to 66.4 vs. 57.0 est, (56.8 prior), Sentiment 69.4 vs. 62.0 est, while 1 Yr Inflation est fell to 3.1% vs. 4.3% est (4.5% prior), 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.8% vs. 3.1% est (3.2% prior).
  • All relevant ahead of next Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement while markets get to see final CPI and PPI inflationary figures on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.
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