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Markets Roundup: Tsys Hug Lows After Strong Data

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are trading weaker after the bell, drifting near session lows since late morning after a mildly volatile open. Treasury futures extended highs (TYU3 113-13, +5.5) after the equity open as stocks marched higher through late trade (SP Eminis +41.75 at 4422.00). No specific headline driver for the early support, trading desks suggest early month end buying while bounce in Canadian FI post data may be a contributing factor.
  • FI support was short lived as Treasury futures sold-off (TYU3 marking 112-24.5 low, yield 3.7601%) in reaction to stronger than expected data (May durable goods orders, April home prices, May new home sales, and June consumer confidence) that contributed to modest gain in projected rate hike expectations in the second half of 2023.
  • Market confidence of a hike at the July 26 FOMC has climbed to 76% from 69% early Monday, implied rate of +19.1bp to 5.267%. September cumulative of +23.6bp at 5.313% while November is fully pricing in a 25bp hike with cumulative at 27.7 at 5.354%. Fed terminal at 5.355% in Nov'23.
  • Focus on ECB Central Bank Forum underway in Sintra. Fed Chair Powell, ECB Lagarde, BOJ Ueda and BOE Bailey on policy panel event Wednesday at 0930ET.
  • Also of interest, the Federal Reserve Board annual bank stress tests results will be tomorrow afternoon at 1630ET.
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